January 2023


A SNAPSHOT OF THE BELARUSIAN
DIASPORA:
TIES AND PROSPECTS

Henadz Korshunau
    A Snapshot of the Belarusian Diaspora:
2   Ties and Prospects                                                                                             January 2023




                                                                The Belarusian diaspora is young,
        Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have               educated, and financially secure
        fled their country because of the political crisis.
        In the last two years, Belarusians abroad have          The vast majority of members of the Belarusian diaspora
        formed new communities, started businesses, and         have higher education (74% responded that they did so;
        launched many projects and initiatives. Because of      another 13% claimed to have completed post-graduate
        the totalitarian repressions in Belarus — as well       education). More than ¾ of the diaspora are younger
        as the emigration of civil society, the independent     than 40: 30% are 18–30, and 47% are 31–40. Among civic-
        media, and the political opposition — responsibility    minded Belarusian emigrants, 53% were men and 46%
        for how Belarusian society progresses now lies          were women (0.6% chose “other” when asked about their
        firmly on the shoulders of Belarusians abroad.          gender).

        Narodny Opros (National Poll), along with the           Half of Belarusians abroad work as permanent employees
        Center for New Ideas, has conducted a survey            in the private sector; another ~20% identify as freelancers
        of the Belarusian diaspora in order to gain a           (self-employed, sole proprietors). Most of the Belarusian
        better understanding of the nature of Belarusians       diaspora enjoy relatively high earnings: 12% earn very high
        abroad, what kind of connections members of the         salaries, 34% have enough money buy a car, and 28% can
        Belarusian diaspora have forged in their adoptive       afford to freely make expensive purchases.
        countries, and what their views on the future are.
        The online survey was conducted between 3 and
        30 October 2022 using Viber and Telegram bots. A                                                             Diagram 1
        total of 1,631 respondents took part.
                                                                How would you describe your family’s
        There is no precise data on the exact number of         financial situation?
        Belarusians who have emigrated; therefore, this         We don’t need to deny ourselves anything
        study should be taken as an illustration of trends                     12,0%
        emerging in the Belarusian diaspora rather than
                                                                We could buy a car, but our finances are limited
        as a fully representative sociological survey. In
                                                                                               33,5%
        studying the Belarusian diaspora, we noted that
        a high level of civic involvement, internal cohesion,   We could afford to buy some expensive items like a television or
                                                                a fridge, but we couldn’t buy a car
        and close ties with Belarus are characteristic of the
                                                                                          27,8%
        Belarusian diaspora. All these aspects are united
                                                                We have enough money for food and clothing, but we would
        by a general inclination towards civic activity and
                                                                struggle to buy expensive items like a TV or a fridge
        solidarity with the Belarusian agenda. Therefore,
                                                                                       22,4%
        we based our conclusions on the assumption that
        the characteristics and tendencies described in         We have enough money for food, but not clothing

        our research are true for the entire Belarusian                 3,6%

        diaspora — that is the civic-minded segment of          We barely have enough money for food
        Belarusians abroad.                                           0,7%
    A Snapshot of the Belarusian Diaspora:
3   Ties and Prospects                                                                                            January 2023




    Almost all respondents had left Belarus legally (96%). The                                                     Diagram 2
    lowest percentage of legal border crossings occurred in
    2021 (92%), when political factors were compounded by
                                                                 What country do you live in now?
    COVID restrictions.                                          Poland
                                                                                                45,0%
    When moving abroad, 19% turned to NGOs, civic
                                                                 Southern, Eastern, and Northern Europe
    initiatives, and projects for help and advice. The peak of
                                                                                 11,6%
    this activity occurred in 2020–21, when about one quarter
                                                                 “Old Europe”
    of emigrating Belarusians sought help.
                                                                              10,6%

                                                                 Caucasus countries
    The start of the latest phase of Russia’s war against
    Ukraine had a significant impact on Belarusian emigrants.                10,4%

    Since February 24, 2022, 39% of Belarusians abroad have      Baltic countries
    changed their place of residence once or more (35%).                     10,3%

    People who left Belarus in 2022 moved the most.              The New World (English speaking)
                                                                           5,1%
    At the time of the survey, 1 in every 8 respondents (13%)    Russia
    were still planning to change their country of residence.
                                                                          3,7%
    The top three countries to which people planned to move
                                                                 Other countries
    were Poland (24%), Germany (9%), and the US (7%).
                                                                          3,3%




                                                                 The largest share of the civic-minded segment of the
    The largest share of Belarusians
                                                                 Belarusian diaspora (64%) comprises people who left
    who left the country did so in 2021–                         Belarus in 2021–22. Given the totalitarian repressions
    2022 and now reside in Poland,                               taking place in Belarus and the sheer scale of emigration
    Georgia, or Lithuania                                        from the country, this pattern is predictable.

    The top three countries receiving civic-minded Belarusians   On the other hand, there is a strikingly high share of
    are Poland (45%), Georgia (10%), and Lithuania (8%). In      individuals (14%) who left Belarus 8-10-15 years ago but
    fourth place is Germany (6%). The times in which large       nevertheless remain invested and actively involved in efforts
    influxes to these regions occurred are markedly different.   to help Belarus. In fact, this is the core of the Belarusian
    Thus, the largest share of the Belarusian diaspora in “Old   diaspora—they have the most resilient motivation and the
    Europe” (Germany, France, the UK), the New World, and        most experience working and functioning abroad. The fact
    Russia comprises people who left Belarus before 2015.        that their numbers are so great gives reason to hope that
    The second-largest share arrived between 2015 and 2019.      more recent emigrants will also remain proactive in the
    In Poland, as in other countries that aren’t part of “Old    long term.
    Europe”, the largest wave of Belarusian migrants arrived
    in 2021. The Georgian and Lithuanian diasporas saw the
    largest influx of newcomers in 2022.
    A Snapshot of the Belarusian Diaspora:
4   Ties and Prospects                                                                                                      January 2023




                                                     Diagram 3                                                               Diagram 4

    When did you leave Belarus?                                     Why did you leave Belarus?

                                                                    Because I felt unprotected, because of a lack of security
                                                                                                                  59,2%

                                                                    I was afraid of repressions from the government (even though no
                                      13,8%                         case had been opened against me at the time of my departure)
                                                                                                          48,9%

                                                                    I couldn’t see any prospects for self-actualization
                32,8%                            11,2%
                                                                                                  35,1%

                                                                    Because of the economic problems in the country
                                                                                              28,1%
                                                 10,9%
                                                                    To avoid administrative or criminal punishment imposed for
                                                                    political reasons
                                                                                          21,0%
                              31,3%
                                                                    I was offered a job
                                                                                    13,4%

                                                                    I wanted to have new experiences or prove myself
        2022        2021     2020      2015-19      before 2015                      15,8%

                                                                    I wanted to see the world
                                                                                9,4%
    People leave in search of security,                             Family reasons (marriage, family reunification, etc.)
    because of lack of prospects, and                                          8,3%
    due to the economic crisis                                      I got into an educational establishment
                                                                               8,0%
    The reasons people leave Belarus can be divided into sev-
                                                                    I wanted to find a new job
    eral blocks: problems with security, lack of prospects, and
                                                                             5,2%
    economic factors.


    The first and best-represented block corresponds to Be-
    larusians who left due to security considerations. There        Diaspora Belarusians maintain
    is a growing sense of insecurity (which peaked in 2022),        close ties with their homeland
    fear of persecution by the regime (peaking in 2021), and
    desire to avoid punishments imposed by the regime (peak-        Belarusians abroad continue to be invested in events unfolding
    ing in 2020). These reasons are especially relevant for the     in Belarus: 9 out of 10 read news about their country at least
    most recent wave of migration, which was triggered by the       once a day (75% of respondents do so multiple times a day).
    events of 2020.                                                 Members of the Belarusian diaspora maintain ties with close
                                                                    ones who have remained in Belarus. Above all, this concerns
    In second place is the feeling that there is a lack of pros-    relatives (93%) and friends (80%). Regular communication
    pects in the country: people want to gain new experiences       with colleagues and like-minded people who have remained
    and see the world. The third block consists of economic         in the country is much less frequent.
    reasons. The reasons included in this block are more char-
    acteristic of earlier waves of migration (before 2020); their
    popularity among the latest waves of migration is signifi-
    cantly lower.
    A Snapshot of the Belarusian Diaspora:
5   Ties and Prospects                                                                                                 January 2023




                                                          Diagram 5    A quarter of Belarusians abroad do
    Do you keep in touch with people who have                          not plan on returning
    remained in Belarus?
                                                                       One of the most sensitive migration-related questions for
    I communicate with family members                                  Belarusians is whether they want to go back home. Are
                                                       93,0%           they planning on returning to Belarus? At present, our
    I communicate with friends who have stayed in Belarus              findings point to a tentatively optimistic state of affairs:
                                                               80,4%   42% of respondents want to return to Belarus (18% say
    I communicate with co-workers (including former ones)              they will definitely return), while 25% do not plan on
    in Belarus                                                         returning (6% say that they will definitely not go back).
                                      41,1%                            That said, the most common response was “hard to say”—
    I communicate with like-minded people who have stayed              it was chosen by 36% of respondents.
     in Belarus
                              33,6%
                                                                                                                        Diagram 6
    I keep in touch with my former neighbors in Belarus
                    14,0%                                              Do you even plan on returning to Belarus to
    I don’t communicate with anyone in Belarus, I’ve lost touch        live?
             0,8%                                                      Yes, I will definitely return
    I make a point of not communicating with people who have                              17,8%
    stayed in the country
                                                                       Yes, I will most probably return
             0,1%
                                                                                              24,3%
    Other
                                                                       Hard to say
             2,2%
                                                                                                       32,6%

                                                                       No, I will most likely not return
    In addition to personal connections, Belarusians abroad
                                                                                           19,8%
    maintain ties with various communities—albeit to a lesser
                                                                       I will definitely not return
    degree. The findings of this research show that ties with
                                                                                 5,5%
    location-based communities and corporate/professional
    groups are the most likely to fade. Communities that retain
    the greatest potential are not tied to specific organizations;     If we look at the distribution of responses in different
    instead, they are formed around independent projects               periods corresponding to various waves of migration, a
    and initiatives.                                                   well-known fact is confirmed. The longer people spend
                                                                       abroad—even in forced emigration—the weaker their
    Inter-diasporic ties among Belarusians abroad can be               intention of returning to their homeland.
    characterized as very close. A total of 95% of respondents
    indicated that they cultivate relations with other                 The decision to return home is also contingent on the
    Belarusians who have left their homeland in some way or            domestic political situation. Thus, on one hand, 95% of
    another. A distinctive feature of these ties is their cross-       respondents indicated that the continued existence of the
    border nature: most respondents (61%) communicate                  Lukashenka regime in Belarus influences their decision-
    primarily with Belarusians around the world rather                 making regarding whether to return. Correspondingly,
    than the country they live in (45%; meanwhile, 52%                 a regime change would lead to a large-scale wave of
    communicate primarily with Belarusians living in the same          repatriation, i.e., a return of Belarusians to Belarus.
    city).
    A Snapshot of the Belarusian Diaspora:
6   Ties and Prospects                                            January 2023




    On the other hand, we see that whereas the “Lukashenka
    factor” is the main thing preventing people from returning
    to Belarus in the initial years of migration, with time the
    importance of this reason begins to diminish. In other
    words, as people settle down in a new place, other factors
    become more salient (children, new jobs, obligations,
    prospects, etc.).


    The decision “not to return” taken by one segment of
    the Belarusian diaspora does not imply a severing of ties
    with Belarus. Of those who don’t plan on returning, 70%
    plan on participating in the development of Belarus after
    Lukashenka’s departure.



    How is the diaspora involved in the
    Belarusian agenda?

    The main forms of assistance to Belarus that Belarusians
    plan to focus on are:


       • Investing their own knowledge, skills, and abilities
          into projects that benefit Belarus (including ones on
          Belarusian territory), 53% of those who don’t plan on
          returning to Belarus declared such intentions;

       • Crowdfunding for civil society in Belarus, indicated
          by 51% of respondents;

       • Contributing financially to educational and cultural
          projects in Belarus (50%).


    We also found that out of those who don’t plan on return-
    ing to Belarus, 34% were prepared to invest in business
    projects in a new Belarus, 29% would be willing to open a
    business in Belarus, and 26% would make financial contri-
    butions to infrastructure projects in Belarus.
ABOUT AUTHOR
           Henadz Korshunau is a senior researcher at the Center for New Ideas.

           He holds a PhD in sociology and specializes in public opinion analysis. Main
           areas of research: social structures, processes and institutions, sociology of
           revolution, processes of nation-building, dynamics of the media space.

           korshunau@newbelarus.vision




           National Poll is an independent project for the study
           of public opinion in Belarus.

           https://narodny-opros.net




           The Center for New Ideas is a think tank dedicated to developing ideas
           on how to take advantage of the opportunities and respond to the
           challenges that Belarus faces in the 21st century. Our mission is to
           help political and social organisations build a more open, prosperous,
           and resilient Belarus.

           https://newbelarus.vision




           Photo by Pavel Krichko

           January 2023
